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From Mpox And Mosquitoes To Mutant Covid And The World's Most Infectious Disease – The 4 Biggest Health Threats Of 2024
WHETHER it begins tomorrow, next year, or next decade, another health threat is coming.
From the emergence of the new JN.1 Covid strain, to concerns over a more lethal Mpox variant, to the spread of mosquito-carried diseases from tropical countries, scientists predict an outbreak of sorts is on its way.
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The world might not be prepared for another disease outbreakAs 2023 draws to a close, infectious disease health experts consider what 2024 could have in store for the world.
JN.1 CovidThe most obvious health threat is the new, more transmissible Covid strain that is already rapidly spreading in parts of the world.
The JN.1 bug was been labelled a "variant of interest" by the World Health Organisation (WHO) earlier this month, while
According to the US Centre for Disease Control (CDC) latest estimates, JN.1 currently makes up between 15 per cent and 29 per cent of cases in the US.
The WHO have been careful to stress the risk posed by the strain is currently "low".
"Based on the available evidence, the additional global public health risk posed by JN.1 is currently evaluated as low," the UN organisation wrote.
The bug has not been found to lead to more severe symptoms than previous variants.
However, mutations could mean it's spreading faster, and herd immunity is waning.
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Miracle baby born 14 weeks early weighing 15oz finally goes home after 102 daysProf Peter Openshaw, from Imperial College London, told the BBC: "It's a surprisingly devious virus, sometimes making people quite ill and occasionally leading to having 'long Covid'."
Talking to The Sun earlier this month, he added: "Immunity falls over time, and for many, it's been over a year since they had their last booster jabs."
The more a virus changes, the less effective antibodies are at fighting it.
"The virus circulating now is quite different from the one we saw in 2020," Prof Peter said.
"The new virus has become so much better at transmitting from person to person, and it's likely only going to get better.
"It's also much better at evading the current immunity from infection and vaccination."
MPOXAnd it's not just Covid that could find itself in the media spotlight over the coming year.
A severe strain of mpox (previously called monkeypox) that kills one in 10 of those it infects is spreading, health officials have announced.
There are two types of the mpox virus: Clade I and Clade II.
Clade I has a higher mortality, with a fatality rate of around 10 per cent.
Clade II is generally milder, and this type was circulating in Europe last year.
"We are worried about Clade I expanding to other countries, and there's very little attention on mpox right now," Dr Maria Van Kerkhove, an expert on infectious diseases, told Sky News.
It comes after nearly 600 have died of suspected Clade 1 mpox in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), many of those children.
A further 11,988 have been infected in the nation's largest-ever outbreak.
The death toll has already overtaken the 112 global fatalities recorded during last summer's epidemic when the disease was spotted in the UK for the first time.
DENGUE FEVERDengue – a lethal disease spread by mosquitos – will soon be in the UK.
The "breakbone fever" has been spotted in France, Italy and most recently Cyprus.
In response, the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) announced last month that it would install mega mosquito traps in ports, service stations and truck stops in places like London and Kent by mid-2024.
This is to monitor the number of mosquitos, called Aedes albopictus, transported via lorry and shipping containers into the country.
The UK government has predicted the mozzies could be common in England by the 2040s.
Typically, the pests reside in tropical climates.
But scientists say climate change, which brings frequent heatwaves and flooding to Europe, has created more favourable conditions for the critters.
"This is not a theoretical risk into the future. It's happening now, and it has to be addressed now," said Dr Maria.
MEASLESCases of measles, one of the world's most infectious diseases, have increased by over 3,000 per cent in Europe over the last year.
More than 30,000 infections were reported between January and October 2023, up significantly from the 941 in all of 2022, according to the WHO.
The surge is being blamed on falling vaccination coverage in all 53 of the European member states since 2020. This includes the UK.
"This is concerning," Dr Hans Henri P. Kluge, WHO regional director for Europe, said.
Officials are now calling for "urgent" action to be taken to stop potentially killer outbreaks.
There is no treatment or cure for measles, but safe and effective MMR jabs (which protect against measles, mumps and rubella) are available.
"Vaccination is the only way to protect children from this potentially dangerous disease," Dr Kluge said.
Cases of measles have reached a three-year high in the UK, as parents are not vaccinating their children.
The latest NHS figures also show MMR vaccine uptake is at its lowest level since 2010/2011, with only 84.5 per cent of kids receiving both doses by age five.
Up to 102,000 children in England aged four and five started the school year without being jabbed, meaning they are at high risk.
Measles commonly causes a fever, runny nose, cough, red eyes, sore throat and a distinctive rash - with the virus usually clearing within two weeks.
It can sometimes lead to complications such as pneumonia, meningitis, seizures, blindness or even death if it spreads to other parts of the body, such as the lungs or brain.
This is of particular concern for babies and those who are immunosuppressed.
It is also more severe in pregnancy, and increases the risk of miscarriage, stillbirth or preterm delivery.
ARE WE PREPARED?It's been four years since Covid began ripping through the entire world.
Four years on, are we any more prepared for an outbreak than we were then?
Yes, and no, Dr Maria said.
On the one hand, surveillance, testing, and infection prevention is many countries has improved, she explained, putting us in good stead.
But some things make the expert less sure about how prepared we are to tackle a new pandemic.
She explained: "I look at the attacks on science and on scientists, the politicisation of every aspect of Covid."
She also said some countries may be less motivated to report new bugs because of the negative financial and political impact.
"So on my less optimistic side, I'm really concerned that in some aspects we're worse off than we were even four years ago," she added.
Top 5 Most-Read Infectious Disease Content Of 2023
This year's most-read articles on infectious disease explored topics like vitamin D deficiency, COVID-19 masking, and Clostridioides difficile infection.
The top 5 most-read infectious disease articles on AJMC.Com this year explored recent findings on disease states like Clostridioides difficile infection (CDI), Candida auris, and COVID-19.
Here are the 5 most-read infectious disease pieces of 2023.
Infectious disease
Image credit: nobeastsofierce - stock.Adobe.Com
5. Cesarean Delivery More Common When CDI Is Present, Study Finds
Pregnant individuals have traditionally been considered at low risk of contracting CDI, but this article published in May summarized study findings that pregnant patients with CDI are at a significantly increased risk of delivering via cesarean section. The researchers compared women who contracted CDI to a control group to better understand the infection's impact; they found that 26.5% of pregnancies in the CDI group resulted in cesarean section deliveries compared with 10.2% in the control group.
Read the full article.
4. Health Care Systems Unlikely to Stop Masking Despite New Guidelines
Although the CDC altered its guidance on the control and prevention of COVID-19, this article published in April shared study findings that showed most health systems planned to continue masking. The study surveyed 34 respondents who represented health systems across the United States about the new guidelines. Of the respondents, 33 (97.1%) reported their facility was not planning to halt universal masking, mainly to prevent non-COVID-19 seasonal respiratory viruses (90.9%) and because of the effect masking had on employee staffing capacity (72.7%).
Read the full article.
3. C difficile, COVID-19 Coinfection Risk Greatest in Older Women
This article originally published on Contagion Live in September summarized the findings of a retrospective analysis that examined outcomes in patients with COVID-19 and CDI coinfection using the National Inpatient Sample database. Of the 1,045,125 COVID-19 hospitalizations identified, 4920 had a CDI coinfection. Older White female patients were more likely to be coinfected, and those coinfected had nearly double the length of hospital stays. Also, patients with coinfection had higher total hospital costs and saw higher inpatient mortality (21.6% vs 11%; P < .001).
Read the full article.
2. Dangerous Drug-Resistant Yeast Infection Rising Across the US, CDC Says
The CDC released a report in March about how Candida auris, a highly contagious fungal infection with a high mortality rate, is rising nationwide and becoming more resistant to therapy, which this article summarized. The report examined clinical cases where individuals became sick, colonization screening, and data from the CDC's Antimicrobial Resistance Laboratory Network. It found that cases of the dangerous yeast infection rose drastically between 2019 and 2021 by multiple measures; the percentage increase in clinical cases grew each year, with a 44% increase in 2019 and a 95% increase in 2021.
Read the full article.
1. Vitamin D Deficiency Linked With CDI Recurrence, Study Finds
This article published in August shared results from a study suggesting that patients with vitamin D deficiency (VDD) who become infected with CDI have a higher risk of recurrence. The researchers gave several reasons for the link between VDD and higher rates of recurrence, including that vitamin D promotes the structural integrity of the intestinal lining and helps to protect the gut microbiome; therefore, those with a lack of vitamin D are more vulnerable to recurrence. For patients with VDD to reduce their reinfection risk, they suggested using vitamin D supplements during initial CDI cases.
Read the full article.
Flu, Dengue And Covid Top 2023 Infectious Disease Charts
Dengue fever soars 3.4-fold
PUBLISHED : 31 Dec 2023 at 12:59
Infuenza, haemorrhagic dengue fever and Covid-19 have been the most widespread infectious diseases in Thailand this year, according to the Department of Disease Control.
Dr Thongchai Keeratihattayakorn, acting director-general of the department, said that from Jan 1 to Dec 16, there were 460,325 influenza patients, 29 of whom died. The biggest group of patients was in the age range of 5-14 years.
He said that the number of influenza patients naturally rose when people became more lenient in their protection against Covid-19.
For haemorrhagic dengue fever, there were 147,412 patients from Jan 1 to Dec 13. The number was 3.4 times higher than last year's figure.
The 174 dengue fatalities were spread across 54 provinces and most fatalities were 25-34 years old and had underlying illnesses including obesity.
Dr Thongchai said that haemorrhagic dengue fever normally spread when the country faced the El Nino weather phenomenon and outbreak would last for two years at a time. This year was the first.
From Jan 1 to Dec 23, 37,863 people were admitted to hospitals for Covid-19. Of them, 845 died and 114 suffered lung inflammation.
The disease spread continuously from last year and cases peaked from April to July. However, the number of cases and the seriousness of symptoms were lower than a few years ago, Dr Thongchai said.
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